Rīgas FS 2–0 Panevėžys: Result & Stats

Rīgas FS

2 – 0

Panevėžys

1/19/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadions Zvejnieku aleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rīgas FS69%

×Draw19%

Panevėžys12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rīgas FSExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.80

Rīgas FS

2.20

Panevėžys

0.80

Rīgas FS creates 175% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

3.00

creates per match

0.60

1.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Rīgas FS

3.00

Panevėžys

0.60

allows per match

Rīgas FS

1.00

Panevėžys

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rīgas FS ↓

Panevėžys →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rīgas FS or draw

88%

Rīgas FS or Panevėžys

81%

Draw or Panevėžys

31%

Winning margin

Rīgas FS wins by 2+

45%

Panevėžys wins by 2+

Team goals

Rīgas FS 1+ goals

89%

Rīgas FS 2+ goals

64%

Rīgas FS 3+ goals

37%

Panevėžys 1+ goals

55%

Panevėžys 2+ goals

19%

Panevėžys 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Rīgas FS (draw refunded)

85%

Panevėžys (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rīgas FS at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rīgas FS attack 3.00 + Panevėžys defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Panevėžys attack 0.60 + Rīgas FS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rīgas FS scores more

69%

level

19%

Panevėžys scores more

12%

Rīgas FS at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Rīgas FS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff