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Rīgas FS vs Jelgava — Virsliga 2019

Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jelgava
Jelgava
7/4/2020VirsligaVirsliga · Round 5Stadions Arkādija grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Rīgas FS69%
×Draw19%
Jelgava12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rīgas FS
2.18
Jelgava
0.78

Rīgas FS creates 179% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 29 away

creates per match

Rīgas FS
2.70
Jelgava
0.83

allows per match

Rīgas FS
0.73
Jelgava
1.66

finishing

Rīgas FS+0.00on par
Jelgava+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rīgas FS ↓

Jelgava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rīgas FS or draw
88%
Rīgas FS or Jelgava
81%
Draw or Jelgava
31%

Winning margin

Rīgas FS wins by 2+
45%
Jelgava wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rīgas FS 1+ goals
89%
Rīgas FS 2+ goals
64%
Rīgas FS 3+ goals
37%
Jelgava 1+ goals
54%
Jelgava 2+ goals
18%
Jelgava 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rīgas FS (draw refunded)
85%
Jelgava (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rīgas FS at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.73 · 115 matches

Jelgava away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rīgas FS attack 2.70 + Jelgava defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.18

Jelgava attack 0.83 + Rīgas FS defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rīgas FS scores more
69%
level
19%
Jelgava scores more
12%

Rīgas FS at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Rīgas FS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Virsliga: Rīgas FS 1–0 Jelgava

Rīgas FS beat Jelgava 1-0 in Virsliga on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadions Arkādija grass in Riga.