Rīgas FS 0–3 Fiorentina: Result & Stats

Rīgas FS

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Fiorentina

R. Saponara 45+2'

Arthur Cabral 44'

A. Barák 7'

11/3/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 6Stadions Skonto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rīgas FS29%

×Draw24%

Fiorentina47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rīgas FSExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.64

Rīgas FS

1.24

Fiorentina

1.64

Fiorentina creates 32% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 27 away

1.33

creates per match

1.85

1.42

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Rīgas FS

1.33

Fiorentina

1.85

allows per match

Rīgas FS

1.42

Fiorentina

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rīgas FS ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rīgas FS or draw

53%

Rīgas FS or Fiorentina

76%

Draw or Fiorentina

71%

Winning margin

Rīgas FS wins by 2+

12%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Rīgas FS 1+ goals

71%

Rīgas FS 2+ goals

35%

Rīgas FS 3+ goals

13%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

81%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

49%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Rīgas FS (draw refunded)

38%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rīgas FS at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rīgas FS attack 1.33 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + Rīgas FS defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rīgas FS scores more

29%

level

24%

Fiorentina scores more

47%

Fiorentina at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

72

A. Barák

Fiorentina · M

8.5

Match Events

3'

P. Mareš← K. Dubra

7'

A. Barák↳ R. Saponara

44'

Arthur Cabral↳ A. Barák

45+2'

R. Saponara↳ J. Ikoné

46'

Emerson Deocleciano← T. Šimkovič

46'

A. Bianco← G. Bonaventura

46'

S. Żurkowski← R. Mandragora

55'

Artūrs Zjuzins

59'

V. Sorokins← P. Mareš

59'

K. Friesenbichler← A. Zjuzins

59'

L. Jović← Arthur Cabral

59'

F. Di Stefano← J. Ikoné

73'

G. Žaleiko← T. Šarić

76'

Y. Maleh← A. Barák

77'

Lucas Martínez Quarta

79'

Lorenzo Venuti

89'

Alessandro Bianco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RīgasFiorentina

Overview

31%Possession69%

7Total Shots18

1Corners7

10Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots18

4On Target5

3Off Target9

0Blocked4

6Inside Box11

1Outside Box7

Passing

31%Possession69%

285Total Passes623

198Accurate Passes540

69%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

5Offsides2