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Rīgas FS II vs Smiltene — 1. Liga 2026

Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
FT
5 – 4
HT: 3 – 4
Smiltene
Smiltene
11/12/20231. Liga1. Liga · Round 26LNK Sporta Parks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rīgas FS II67%
×Draw17%
Smiltene16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rīgas FS II
2.67
Smiltene
1.27

Rīgas FS II creates 110% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 88 away

creates per match

Rīgas FS II
2.70
Smiltene
1.31

allows per match

Rīgas FS II
1.22
Smiltene
2.65

finishing

Rīgas FS II+0.00on par
Smiltene+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rīgas FS II ↓

Smiltene →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Rīgas FS II or draw
84%
Rīgas FS II or Smiltene
83%
Draw or Smiltene
33%

Winning margin

Rīgas FS II wins by 2+
45%
Smiltene wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rīgas FS II 1+ goals
93%
Rīgas FS II 2+ goals
74%
Rīgas FS II 3+ goals
49%
Smiltene 1+ goals
72%
Smiltene 2+ goals
36%
Smiltene 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rīgas FS II (draw refunded)
80%
Smiltene (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rīgas FS II at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

Smiltene away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.65 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rīgas FS II attack 2.70 + Smiltene defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.67

Smiltene attack 1.31 + Rīgas FS II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Rīgas FS II scores more
67%
level
17%
Smiltene scores more
16%

Rīgas FS II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Rīgas FS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Rīgas FS II 5–4 Smiltene

Rīgas FS II beat Smiltene 5-4 in 1. Liga on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at LNK Sporta Parks in Riga.