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Rīgas FS II vs Leevon / PPK — 1. Liga 2026

Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
5/3/20251. Liga1. Liga · Round 6LNK Sporta Parks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Rīgas FS II55%
×Draw22%
Leevon / PPK23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rīgas FS II
2.00
Leevon / PPK
1.21

Rīgas FS II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 33 away

creates per match

Rīgas FS II
2.70
Leevon / PPK
1.21

allows per match

Rīgas FS II
1.22
Leevon / PPK
1.30

finishing

Rīgas FS II+0.00on par
Leevon / PPK+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rīgas FS II ↓

Leevon / PPK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rīgas FS II or draw
77%
Rīgas FS II or Leevon / PPK
78%
Draw or Leevon / PPK
45%

Winning margin

Rīgas FS II wins by 2+
33%
Leevon / PPK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rīgas FS II 1+ goals
86%
Rīgas FS II 2+ goals
59%
Rīgas FS II 3+ goals
32%
Leevon / PPK 1+ goals
70%
Leevon / PPK 2+ goals
34%
Leevon / PPK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rīgas FS II (draw refunded)
71%
Leevon / PPK (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rīgas FS II at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

Leevon / PPK away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rīgas FS II attack 2.70 + Leevon / PPK defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.00

Leevon / PPK attack 1.21 + Rīgas FS II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rīgas FS II scores more
55%
level
22%
Leevon / PPK scores more
23%

Rīgas FS II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rīgas FS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Rīgas FS II 2–1 Leevon / PPK

Rīgas FS II beat Leevon / PPK 2-1 in 1. Liga on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at LNK Sporta Parks in Riga.