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Riga vs Žilina — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Riga
Riga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Žilina
Žilina
I. Korotkovs 70'
G. Ramos 4'
L. Janosik 48'
1/28/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Jebel Ali Centre of Excellence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Riga42%
×Draw23%
Žilina35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riga
1.76
Žilina
1.59

Riga creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Riga
1.75
Žilina
1.69

allows per match

Riga
1.50
Žilina
1.77

finishing

Riga+0.00on par
Žilina+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riga ↓

Žilina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Riga or draw
65%
Riga or Žilina
77%
Draw or Žilina
58%

Winning margin

Riga wins by 2+
22%
Žilina wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Riga 1+ goals
83%
Riga 2+ goals
52%
Riga 3+ goals
26%
Žilina 1+ goals
80%
Žilina 2+ goals
47%
Žilina 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Riga (draw refunded)
55%
Žilina (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riga at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Žilina away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riga attack 1.75 + Žilina defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.76

Žilina attack 1.69 + Riga defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Riga scores more
42%
level
23%
Žilina scores more
35%

Riga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Riga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
G. Ramos
48'
L. Janosik
70'
I. Korotkovs

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Riga 2 – 1 Žilina

Riga beat Žilina 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 28, 2022.

Goals: G. Ramos (4'), L. Janosik (48'), I. Korotkovs (70').

The match was played at Jebel Ali Centre of Excellence in Dubai.