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Riga vs Spartaks Jurmala — Virsliga 2019

Riga
Riga
CANC
13:00
Spartaks Jurmala
Spartaks Jurmala
7/25/2021VirsligaVirsliga · Round 17Sporta komplekss Ķeizarmežs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Riga66%
×Draw19%
Spartaks Jurmala15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riga
2.24
Spartaks Jurmala
0.97

Riga creates 131% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 52 away

creates per match

Riga
2.41
Spartaks Jurmala
1.29

allows per match

Riga
0.64
Spartaks Jurmala
2.06

finishing

Riga+0.00on par
Spartaks Jurmala+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riga ↓

Spartaks Jurmala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Riga or draw
85%
Riga or Spartaks Jurmala
81%
Draw or Spartaks Jurmala
34%

Winning margin

Riga wins by 2+
42%
Spartaks Jurmala wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Riga 1+ goals
89%
Riga 2+ goals
65%
Riga 3+ goals
38%
Spartaks Jurmala 1+ goals
62%
Spartaks Jurmala 2+ goals
25%
Spartaks Jurmala 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Riga (draw refunded)
81%
Spartaks Jurmala (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riga at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.64 · 116 matches

Spartaks Jurmala away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.06 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riga attack 2.41 + Spartaks Jurmala defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.24

Spartaks Jurmala attack 1.29 + Riga defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Riga scores more
66%
level
19%
Spartaks Jurmala scores more
15%

Riga at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Riga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Riga host Spartaks Jurmala

July 25, 2021: Riga take on Spartaks Jurmala in Virsliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Riga host Spartaks Jurmala at Sporta komplekss Ķeizarmežs.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.