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Ried vs WSG Wattens — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ried
Ried
Canc
12:00
WSG Wattens
WSG Wattens
1/19/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Ried - Alt Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ried16%
×Draw15%
WSG Wattens69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ried
1.58
WSG Wattens
3.25

WSG Wattens creates 106% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ried
2.17
WSG Wattens
5.33

allows per match

Ried
1.17
WSG Wattens
1.00

finishing

Ried+0.00on par
WSG Wattens+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried ↓

WSG Wattens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Ried or draw
31%
Ried or WSG Wattens
85%
Draw or WSG Wattens
84%

Winning margin

Ried wins by 2+
7%
WSG Wattens wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Ried 1+ goals
79%
Ried 2+ goals
47%
Ried 3+ goals
21%
WSG Wattens 1+ goals
96%
WSG Wattens 2+ goals
83%
WSG Wattens 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Ried (draw refunded)
19%
WSG Wattens (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

WSG Wattens away — creates 5.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried attack 2.17 + WSG Wattens defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

WSG Wattens attack 5.33 + Ried defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Ried scores more
16%
level
15%
WSG Wattens scores more
69%

WSG Wattens at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "WSG Wattens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ried face WSG Wattens (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Ried hosting WSG Wattens. Match starts January 19, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ried host WSG Wattens at Stadion Ried - Alt Kunstrasen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.