Ried 3–2 SCR Altach: Result & Stats | Bundesliga

Ried

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SCR Altach

K. Mutandwa 90' (pen), 69', 62'

M. Ouedraogo 46'

P. Greil 27'

4/3/2026

Bundesliga · Relegation Group - 25Innviertel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ried43%

×Draw26%

SCR Altach31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RiedExpected goals in this matchSCR Altach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.20

Ried

1.45

SCR Altach

1.20

Ried creates 21% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 124 away

1.33

creates per match

0.93

1.47

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Ried

1.33

SCR Altach

0.93

allows per match

Ried

1.47

SCR Altach

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ried+0.00on par

SCR Altach+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried ↓

SCR Altach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ried or draw

69%

Ried or SCR Altach

74%

Draw or SCR Altach

57%

Winning margin

Ried wins by 2+

21%

SCR Altach wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ried 1+ goals

77%

Ried 2+ goals

42%

Ried 3+ goals

18%

SCR Altach 1+ goals

70%

SCR Altach 2+ goals

34%

SCR Altach 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ried (draw refunded)

58%

SCR Altach (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

SCR Altach away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried attack 1.33 + SCR Altach defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

SCR Altach attack 0.93 + Ried defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ried scores more

43%

level

26%

SCR Altach scores more

31%

Ried at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ried will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. Mutandwa

Ried · F

8.9

Match Events

27'

P. Greil↳ V. Demaku

46'

K. Mutandwa← P. Kiedl

46'

M. Ouedraogo↳ Y. Massombo

50'

Kingstone Mutandwa

58'

Ousmane Diawara

62'

K. Mutandwa↳ A. Bajic

64'

E. E. Aisowieren← M. Rasner

69'

K. Mutandwa↳ A. van Wyk

70'

S. Mustapha← P. Greil

74'

Sandro Ingolitsch

80'

L. Gugganig← Y. Massombo

85'

J. Nasrawe← F. Rossdorfer

90+10'

Yussef Nasrawe

90+1'

Ante BajićPenalty confirmed

90+7'

D. Kirnbauer← A. Bajic

90+6'

J. Mayer← A. van Wyk

90+4'

A. Gorgon← L. Jager

90+4'

S. Hrstic← V. Demaku

90+4'

E. Yalcin← S. Ingolitsch

90'

K. MutandwaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiedSCR

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots6

1.88Expected Goals (xG)0.42

5Corners1

9Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots6

5On Target3

3Off Target2

4Blocked1

7Inside Box5

5Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

361Total Passes313

283Accurate Passes211

78%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.26Goals Prevented0.26

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0