Ried 3–0 Rot-Weiß Essen: Result & Stats

Ried

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rot-Weiß Essen

7/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ried32%

×Draw21%

Rot-Weiß Essen47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RiedExpected goals in this matchRot-Weiß Essen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

2.10

Ried

1.70

Rot-Weiß Essen

2.10

Rot-Weiß Essen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

2.20

creates per match

3.00

1.20

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ried

2.20

Rot-Weiß Essen

3.00

allows per match

Ried

1.20

Rot-Weiß Essen

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ried+0.00on par

Rot-Weiß Essen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried ↓

Rot-Weiß Essen →

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Ried or draw

53%

Ried or Rot-Weiß Essen

79%

Draw or Rot-Weiß Essen

68%

Winning margin

Ried wins by 2+

16%

Rot-Weiß Essen wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Ried 1+ goals

82%

Ried 2+ goals

51%

Ried 3+ goals

24%

Rot-Weiß Essen 1+ goals

88%

Rot-Weiß Essen 2+ goals

62%

Rot-Weiß Essen 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Ried (draw refunded)

40%

Rot-Weiß Essen (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ried at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Rot-Weiß Essen away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ried attack 2.20 + Rot-Weiß Essen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.70

Rot-Weiß Essen attack 3.00 + Ried defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ried scores more

32%

level

21%

Rot-Weiß Essen scores more

47%

Rot-Weiß Essen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ried

Rot-Weiß

Manager: Maximilian Senft

Ried substitutes

Goiginger26MayerScholl8Rasner42Lechner38Mesic20ZotzSissoko