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Ried II vs Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Ried II
Ried II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wels
Wels
10/26/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 14josko ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ried II58%
×Draw20%
Wels22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ried II
2.30
Wels
1.36

Ried II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 46 away

creates per match

Ried II
1.71
Wels
1.09

allows per match

Ried II
1.64
Wels
2.89

finishing

Ried II+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried II ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ried II or draw
78%
Ried II or Wels
80%
Draw or Wels
42%

Winning margin

Ried II wins by 2+
36%
Wels wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ried II 1+ goals
90%
Ried II 2+ goals
67%
Ried II 3+ goals
40%
Wels 1+ goals
74%
Wels 2+ goals
39%
Wels 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ried II (draw refunded)
73%
Wels (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.64 · 90 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried II attack 1.71 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.30

Wels attack 1.09 + Ried II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ried II scores more
58%
level
20%
Wels scores more
22%

Ried II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ried II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ried II vs Wels

Ried II and Wels drew 0-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at josko ARENA in Ried Im Innkreis.