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Ried II vs Stadl-Paura — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Ried II
Ried II
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
4/14/2022Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 24josko ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ried II67%
×Draw17%
Stadl-Paura16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ried II
2.67
Stadl-Paura
1.27

Ried II creates 110% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ried II
1.71
Stadl-Paura
0.91

allows per match

Ried II
1.64
Stadl-Paura
3.64

finishing

Ried II+0.00on par
Stadl-Paura+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried II ↓

Stadl-Paura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Ried II or draw
84%
Ried II or Stadl-Paura
83%
Draw or Stadl-Paura
33%

Winning margin

Ried II wins by 2+
45%
Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ried II 1+ goals
93%
Ried II 2+ goals
74%
Ried II 3+ goals
49%
Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
72%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
36%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ried II (draw refunded)
80%
Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.64 · 90 matches

Stadl-Paura away — creates 0.91, concedes 3.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried II attack 1.71 + Stadl-Paura defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.67

Stadl-Paura attack 0.91 + Ried II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ried II scores more
67%
level
17%
Stadl-Paura scores more
16%

Ried II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ried II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Ried II 7–0 Stadl-Paura

Ried II beat Stadl-Paura 7-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at josko ARENA in Ried Im Innkreis.