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Ried II vs Hertha — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Ried II
Ried II
CANC
00:00
Hertha
Hertha
4/3/2020Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 21josko ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Ried II38%
×Draw23%
Hertha39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ried II
1.67
Hertha
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 61 away

creates per match

Ried II
1.71
Hertha
1.77

allows per match

Ried II
1.64
Hertha
1.64

finishing

Ried II+0.00on par
Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried II ↓

Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ried II or draw
61%
Ried II or Hertha
77%
Draw or Hertha
62%

Winning margin

Ried II wins by 2+
19%
Hertha wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ried II 1+ goals
81%
Ried II 2+ goals
50%
Ried II 3+ goals
23%
Hertha 1+ goals
82%
Hertha 2+ goals
51%
Hertha 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ried II (draw refunded)
49%
Hertha (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.64 · 90 matches

Hertha away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.64 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried II attack 1.71 + Hertha defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hertha attack 1.77 + Ried II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ried II scores more
38%
level
23%
Hertha scores more
39%

Hertha at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ried II vs Hertha — Match Preview

Ried II face Hertha on April 3, 2020 in this Regionalliga - Mitte fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ried II host Hertha at josko ARENA.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.