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Hertha vs Ried II — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Hertha
Hertha
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ried II
Ried II
4/18/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 22Mauth Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Hertha60%
×Draw19%
Ried II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha
2.46
Ried II
1.42

Hertha creates 73% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 91 away

creates per match

Hertha
2.48
Ried II
1.53

allows per match

Hertha
1.30
Ried II
2.44

finishing

Hertha+0.00on par
Ried II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha ↓

Ried II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Hertha or draw
79%
Hertha or Ried II
81%
Draw or Ried II
40%

Winning margin

Hertha wins by 2+
39%
Ried II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hertha 1+ goals
91%
Hertha 2+ goals
70%
Hertha 3+ goals
44%
Ried II 1+ goals
76%
Ried II 2+ goals
41%
Ried II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hertha (draw refunded)
74%
Ried II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Ried II away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.44 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha attack 2.48 + Ried II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.46

Ried II attack 1.53 + Hertha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hertha scores more
60%
level
19%
Ried II scores more
21%

Hertha at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hertha 2 – 0 Ried II

Hertha beat Ried II 2-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on April 18, 2023.

The match was played at Mauth Stadion in Wels.