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Richmond Kickers vs Ottawa Fury — USL Championship 2018

Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
9/15/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 48City Stadium (Richmond, Virginia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Richmond Kickers32%
×Draw25%
Ottawa Fury43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Richmond Kickers
1.32
Ottawa Fury
1.56

Ottawa Fury creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Richmond Kickers
1.00
Ottawa Fury
1.12

allows per match

Richmond Kickers
2.00
Ottawa Fury
1.65

finishing

Richmond Kickers+0.00on par
Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richmond Kickers ↓

Ottawa Fury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Richmond Kickers or draw
57%
Richmond Kickers or Ottawa Fury
75%
Draw or Ottawa Fury
68%

Winning margin

Richmond Kickers wins by 2+
14%
Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Richmond Kickers 1+ goals
73%
Richmond Kickers 2+ goals
38%
Richmond Kickers 3+ goals
15%
Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
79%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
46%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)
43%
Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richmond Kickers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richmond Kickers attack 1.00 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + Richmond Kickers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Richmond Kickers scores more
32%
level
25%
Ottawa Fury scores more
43%

Ottawa Fury at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ottawa Fury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Richmond Kickers vs Ottawa Fury

Ottawa Fury beat Richmond Kickers 2-0 in USL Championship on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at City Stadium (Richmond, Virginia).