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Richmond Kickers vs Northern Colorado — USL League One 2019

Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
4/15/2023USL League OneUSL League One · Round 3City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Richmond Kickers37%
×Draw26%
Northern Colorado37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Richmond Kickers
1.30
Northern Colorado
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 43 away

creates per match

Richmond Kickers
1.44
Northern Colorado
1.26

allows per match

Richmond Kickers
1.31
Northern Colorado
1.16

finishing

Richmond Kickers+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richmond Kickers ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Richmond Kickers or draw
63%
Richmond Kickers or Northern Colorado
74%
Draw or Northern Colorado
63%

Winning margin

Richmond Kickers wins by 2+
16%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Richmond Kickers 1+ goals
73%
Richmond Kickers 2+ goals
37%
Richmond Kickers 3+ goals
14%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
72%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
37%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)
50%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richmond Kickers at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 100 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richmond Kickers attack 1.44 + Northern Colorado defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Northern Colorado attack 1.26 + Richmond Kickers defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Richmond Kickers scores more
37%
level
26%
Northern Colorado scores more
37%

Richmond Kickers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Richmond Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Richmond Kickers vs Northern Colorado

Richmond Kickers and Northern Colorado drew 0-0 in USL League One on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at City Stadium in Richmond, Virginia.