Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Richmond Kickers vs Maryland Bobcats — US Open Cup 2018

Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Maryland Bobcats
Maryland Bobcats
4/2/2024US Open CupUS Open Cup · 2nd RoundCity Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Richmond Kickers56%
×Draw20%
Maryland Bobcats24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Richmond Kickers
2.27
Maryland Bobcats
1.45

Richmond Kickers creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Richmond Kickers
2.30
Maryland Bobcats
1.00

allows per match

Richmond Kickers
1.90
Maryland Bobcats
2.25

finishing

Richmond Kickers+0.00on par
Maryland Bobcats+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richmond Kickers ↓

Maryland Bobcats →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Richmond Kickers or draw
76%
Richmond Kickers or Maryland Bobcats
80%
Draw or Maryland Bobcats
44%

Winning margin

Richmond Kickers wins by 2+
34%
Maryland Bobcats wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Richmond Kickers 1+ goals
90%
Richmond Kickers 2+ goals
66%
Richmond Kickers 3+ goals
39%
Maryland Bobcats 1+ goals
77%
Maryland Bobcats 2+ goals
42%
Maryland Bobcats 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)
70%
Maryland Bobcats (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richmond Kickers at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Maryland Bobcats away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richmond Kickers attack 2.30 + Maryland Bobcats defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.27

Maryland Bobcats attack 1.00 + Richmond Kickers defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Richmond Kickers scores more
56%
level
20%
Maryland Bobcats scores more
24%

Richmond Kickers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Richmond Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Richmond Kickers vs Maryland Bobcats

Richmond Kickers beat Maryland Bobcats 5-2 in US Open Cup on April 2, 2024.

The match was played at City Stadium in Richmond, Virginia.