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Richmond Kickers vs Lansing Ignite — USL League One 2019

Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Lansing Ignite
Lansing Ignite
5/4/2019USL League OneUSL League One · Round 3City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Richmond Kickers39%
×Draw25%
Lansing Ignite36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Richmond Kickers
1.47
Lansing Ignite
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 14 away

creates per match

Richmond Kickers
1.44
Lansing Ignite
1.50

allows per match

Richmond Kickers
1.31
Lansing Ignite
1.50

finishing

Richmond Kickers+0.00on par
Lansing Ignite+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richmond Kickers ↓

Lansing Ignite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Richmond Kickers or draw
64%
Richmond Kickers or Lansing Ignite
75%
Draw or Lansing Ignite
61%

Winning margin

Richmond Kickers wins by 2+
19%
Lansing Ignite wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Richmond Kickers 1+ goals
77%
Richmond Kickers 2+ goals
43%
Richmond Kickers 3+ goals
18%
Lansing Ignite 1+ goals
76%
Lansing Ignite 2+ goals
41%
Lansing Ignite 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)
52%
Lansing Ignite (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richmond Kickers at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 100 matches

Lansing Ignite away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richmond Kickers attack 1.44 + Lansing Ignite defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Lansing Ignite attack 1.50 + Richmond Kickers defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Richmond Kickers scores more
39%
level
25%
Lansing Ignite scores more
36%

Richmond Kickers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Richmond Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Richmond Kickers vs Lansing Ignite

Richmond Kickers and Lansing Ignite drew 2-2 in USL League One on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at City Stadium in Richmond, Virginia.