Richmond Kickers 2–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves

Richmond Kickers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Chattanooga Red Wolves

K. Çela 72'

C. O'Dwyer 38'

S. Lukic 17'

10/19/2024

USL League One · Round 13City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Richmond Kickers37%

×Draw24%

Chattanooga Red Wolves39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Richmond KickersExpected goals in this matchChattanooga Red Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.51

Richmond Kickers

1.46

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

1.54

creates per match

1.39

1.63

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Richmond Kickers

1.54

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.39

allows per match

Richmond Kickers

1.63

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Richmond Kickers+0.00on par

Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richmond Kickers ↓

Chattanooga Red Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Richmond Kickers or draw

61%

Richmond Kickers or Chattanooga Red Wolves

76%

Draw or Chattanooga Red Wolves

63%

Winning margin

Richmond Kickers wins by 2+

17%

Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Richmond Kickers 1+ goals

77%

Richmond Kickers 2+ goals

43%

Richmond Kickers 3+ goals

18%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals

78%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals

44%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)

49%

Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richmond Kickers at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richmond Kickers attack 1.54 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.39 + Richmond Kickers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Richmond Kickers scores more

37%

level

24%

Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more

39%

Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chattanooga Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Z. Moran

17'

S. Lukic↳ Lucas Coutinho

37'

P. Hernandez

38'

C. O'Dwyer↳ G. Garnett

46'

Nil Vinyals← R. Sierakowski

59'

C. Marsh← O. Hernandez

61'

J. Vaughan← Z. Morán

67'

T. Pineda← J. Kirkland

72'

75'

86'

87'

90+1'

90+5'

R. Jerez

90'

A. Bosua← E. Terzaghi

Richmond

Chattanooga

1

Bush

5

▼

3

14

4

8

13

▼

Hernandez

20

Mensah

9

A

Coutinho

10

Malango

22

⚽

Lukic

35

Sneddon

16

⚽

Çela

5

Schenfeld

2

Barnathan

6

▼

Morán

4

Fitch

27

⚽

O'Dwyer

38

A

Garnett

32

▼

Terzaghi

11

▼

Sierakows

45

▼

Kirkland

Manager: D. Sawatzky

46'▲Nil Vinyals←▼R. Sierakowski

61'▲J. Vaughan←▼Z. Morán

67'▲T. Pineda←▼J. Kirkland

90'▲A. Bosua←▼E. Terzaghi

Richmond Kickers substitutes

10Vinyals17Vaughan15Pineda9Bosua34Howell19Sukow7Johnson14França1Jara

Manager: S. MacKenzie

59'▲C. Marsh←▼O. Hernandez

75'▲T. Jnohope←▼L. Folla

Chattanooga Red Wolves substitutes

11Marsh23Jnohope18Green12Jérez66Knapp6Plascencia21Filipe