Richmond Kickers 4–5 Central Valley Fuego

Richmond Kickers

FT

4 – 5

HT: 3 – 2

Central Valley Fuego

10/14/2023

USL League One · Round 20City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Richmond Kickers46%

×Draw24%

Central Valley Fuego31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Richmond KickersExpected goals in this matchCentral Valley Fuego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.34

Richmond Kickers

1.69

Central Valley Fuego

1.34

Richmond Kickers creates 26% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 42 away

1.44

creates per match

1.38

1.31

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Richmond Kickers

1.44

Central Valley Fuego

1.38

allows per match

Richmond Kickers

1.31

Central Valley Fuego

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Richmond Kickers+0.00on par

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richmond Kickers ↓

Central Valley Fuego →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Richmond Kickers or draw

69%

Richmond Kickers or Central Valley Fuego

76%

Draw or Central Valley Fuego

54%

Winning margin

Richmond Kickers wins by 2+

24%

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Richmond Kickers 1+ goals

82%

Richmond Kickers 2+ goals

50%

Richmond Kickers 3+ goals

24%

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals

74%

Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals

39%

Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)

60%

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richmond Kickers at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 100 matches

Central Valley Fuego away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richmond Kickers attack 1.44 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.69

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.38 + Richmond Kickers defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Richmond Kickers scores more

46%

level

24%

Central Valley Fuego scores more

31%

Richmond Kickers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Richmond Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff