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Richards Bay vs Stellenbosch — Premier Soccer League 2018

Richards Bay
Richards Bay
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch
10/26/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 4King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Richards Bay35%
×Draw32%
Stellenbosch33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Richards Bay
0.95
Stellenbosch
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 104 away

creates per match

Richards Bay
0.89
Stellenbosch
1.01

allows per match

Richards Bay
0.81
Stellenbosch
1.01

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par
Stellenbosch+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

Stellenbosch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw
67%
Richards Bay or Stellenbosch
68%
Draw or Stellenbosch
65%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+
13%
Stellenbosch wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals
61%
Richards Bay 2+ goals
25%
Richards Bay 3+ goals
7%
Stellenbosch 1+ goals
60%
Stellenbosch 2+ goals
23%
Stellenbosch 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)
52%
Stellenbosch (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Stellenbosch away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 0.89 + Stellenbosch defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Stellenbosch attack 1.01 + Richards Bay defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Richards Bay scores more
35%
level
32%
Stellenbosch scores more
33%

Richards Bay at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Richards Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Richards Bay 0–0 Stellenbosch

Richards Bay and Stellenbosch drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium in Durban, KN.