Richards Bay 1–2 Orbit College: Result & Stats

Richards Bay

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Orbit College

K. Mutizwa 39'

M. Saleng 51'

L. Modimoeng 14'

10/17/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 10Umhlathuze Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Richards Bay45%

×Draw31%

Orbit College24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Richards BayExpected goals in this matchOrbit College

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.76

Richards Bay

1.15

Orbit College

0.76

Richards Bay creates 51% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

0.89

creates per match

0.71

0.81

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Richards Bay

0.89

Orbit College

0.71

allows per match

Richards Bay

0.81

Orbit College

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par

Orbit College+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

Orbit College →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw

76%

Richards Bay or Orbit College

69%

Draw or Orbit College

55%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+

19%

Orbit College wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals

68%

Richards Bay 2+ goals

32%

Richards Bay 3+ goals

11%

Orbit College 1+ goals

53%

Orbit College 2+ goals

18%

Orbit College 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)

65%

Orbit College (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Orbit College away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 0.89 + Orbit College defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Orbit College attack 0.71 + Richards Bay defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Richards Bay scores more

45%

level

31%

Orbit College scores more

24%

Richards Bay at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Richards Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

K. Mutizwa

Richards Bay · M

7.3

Match Events

14'

L. Modimoeng↳ T. Moleleki

31'

35'

39'

42'

46'

L. Mahala← L. Zikhali

51'

M. Saleng↳ M. Wagaba

60'

Sbani Khumalo

61'

L. Khumalo← N. Bomelo

72'

Thabang Nhlapo

73'

G. Mhango← M. Mthembu

79'

M. Thikazi← T. Ndelu

82'

Sabelo Calvin Nkomo

85'

R. Mphahlele← L. Modimoeng

90+3'

Mbulelo Wagaba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RichardsOrbit

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots3

5Corners1

13Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots3

7On Target2

2Off Target1

2Blocked0

7Inside Box2

4Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

434Total Passes273

327Accurate Passes177

75%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards5

2Offsides3