Richards Bay 1–0 Moroka Swallows: Result & Stats

Richards Bay

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Moroka Swallows

12/31/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 11King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Richards Bay39%

×Draw33%

Moroka Swallows28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Richards BayExpected goals in this matchMoroka Swallows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.78

Richards Bay

0.98

Moroka Swallows

0.78

Richards Bay creates 26% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

0.89

creates per match

0.74

0.81

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Richards Bay

0.89

Moroka Swallows

0.74

allows per match

Richards Bay

0.81

Moroka Swallows

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par

Moroka Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

Moroka Swallows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw

72%

Richards Bay or Moroka Swallows

67%

Draw or Moroka Swallows

61%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+

15%

Moroka Swallows wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals

62%

Richards Bay 2+ goals

26%

Richards Bay 3+ goals

8%

Moroka Swallows 1+ goals

54%

Moroka Swallows 2+ goals

18%

Moroka Swallows 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)

58%

Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Moroka Swallows away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 0.89 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Moroka Swallows attack 0.74 + Richards Bay defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Richards Bay scores more

39%

level

33%

Moroka Swallows scores more

28%

Richards Bay at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Richards Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff