Richards Bay 1–0 Ajax Cape Town: Result & Stats

Richards Bay

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ajax Cape Town

11/12/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 9King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Richards Bay43%

×Draw31%

Ajax Cape Town26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Richards BayExpected goals in this matchAjax Cape Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.82

Richards Bay

1.13

Ajax Cape Town

0.82

Richards Bay creates 38% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 19 away

0.89

creates per match

0.84

0.81

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Richards Bay

0.89

Ajax Cape Town

0.84

allows per match

Richards Bay

0.81

Ajax Cape Town

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

Ajax Cape Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw

74%

Richards Bay or Ajax Cape Town

69%

Draw or Ajax Cape Town

57%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+

18%

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals

68%

Richards Bay 2+ goals

31%

Richards Bay 3+ goals

11%

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals

56%

Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals

20%

Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)

62%

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Ajax Cape Town away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 0.89 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.84 + Richards Bay defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Richards Bay scores more

43%

level

31%

Ajax Cape Town scores more

26%

Richards Bay at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Richards Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff