Ribert 1–2 Real Ávila: Result & Stats

Ribert

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Real Ávila

1/26/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 18Pistas del Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ribert33%

×Draw29%

Real Ávila39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RibertExpected goals in this matchReal Ávila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.17

Ribert

1.05

Real Ávila

1.17

Real Ávila creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 76 away

1.19

creates per match

1.14

1.19

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Ribert

1.19

Real Ávila

1.14

allows per match

Ribert

1.19

Real Ávila

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ribert+0.00on par

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribert ↓

Real Ávila →

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ribert or draw

61%

Ribert or Real Ávila

71%

Draw or Real Ávila

67%

Winning margin

Ribert wins by 2+

13%

Real Ávila wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ribert 1+ goals

65%

Ribert 2+ goals

28%

Ribert 3+ goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals

69%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

33%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ribert (draw refunded)

46%

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ribert at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ribert attack 1.19 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + Ribert defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ribert scores more

33%

level

29%

Real Ávila scores more

39%

Real Ávila at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff