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Ribamontán al Mar vs Torina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Torina
Torina
2/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Estadio Baceñuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ribamontán al Mar25%
×Draw27%
Torina48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ribamontán al Mar
0.92
Torina
1.39

Torina creates 51% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ribamontán al Mar
0.63
Torina
1.05

allows per match

Ribamontán al Mar
1.73
Torina
1.21

finishing

Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par
Torina+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribamontán al Mar ↓

Torina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ribamontán al Mar or draw
52%
Ribamontán al Mar or Torina
73%
Draw or Torina
75%

Winning margin

Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
9%
Torina wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
60%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
23%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
7%
Torina 1+ goals
75%
Torina 2+ goals
40%
Torina 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
34%
Torina (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ribamontán al Mar at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Torina away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.63 + Torina defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.92

Torina attack 1.05 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ribamontán al Mar scores more
25%
level
27%
Torina scores more
48%

Torina at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Torina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ribamontán al Mar vs Torina

Ribamontán al Mar and Torina drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Baceñuela in Galizano, Ribamontán al Mar.