Ribamontán al Mar vs Sámano: Preview & Prediction

Ribamontán al Mar

CANC

00:00

Sámano

4/12/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 33Estadio Baceñuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ribamontán al Mar28%

×Draw27%

Sámano45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ribamontán al MarExpected goals in this matchSámano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.41

Ribamontán al Mar

1.04

Sámano

1.41

Sámano creates 36% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 91 away

0.63

creates per match

1.09

1.73

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Ribamontán al Mar

0.63

Sámano

1.09

allows per match

Ribamontán al Mar

1.73

Sámano

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Sámano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribamontán al Mar ↓

Sámano →

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ribamontán al Mar or draw

55%

Ribamontán al Mar or Sámano

73%

Draw or Sámano

72%

Winning margin

Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+

10%

Sámano wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals

65%

Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals

28%

Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals

Sámano 1+ goals

76%

Sámano 2+ goals

41%

Sámano 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)

38%

Sámano (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ribamontán al Mar at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Sámano away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.63 + Sámano defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sámano attack 1.09 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ribamontán al Mar scores more

28%

level

27%

Sámano scores more

45%

Sámano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sámano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ribamontán al Mar host Sámano

April 12, 2020: Ribamontán al Mar take on Sámano in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ribamontán al Mar host Sámano at Estadio Baceñuela.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Ribamontán al Mar vs Sámano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Ribamontán al Mar host Sámano