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Ribamontán al Mar vs Gimnástica Torrelavega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
3/7/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Estadio Baceñuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ribamontán al Mar15%
×Draw23%
Gimnástica Torrelavega62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ribamontán al Mar
0.70
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.71

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 144% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ribamontán al Mar
0.63
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.68

allows per match

Ribamontán al Mar
1.73
Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.76

finishing

Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par
Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribamontán al Mar ↓

Gimnástica Torrelavega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ribamontán al Mar or draw
38%
Ribamontán al Mar or Gimnástica Torrelavega
77%
Draw or Gimnástica Torrelavega
85%

Winning margin

Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
4%
Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
50%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
16%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
3%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
82%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
51%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
20%
Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ribamontán al Mar at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.63 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.70

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 1.68 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ribamontán al Mar scores more
15%
level
23%
Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
62%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ribamontán al Mar 1 – 3 Gimnástica Torrelavega

Gimnástica Torrelavega beat Ribamontán al Mar 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Baceñuela in Galizano, Ribamontán al Mar.