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Ribamontán al Mar vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
CANC
00:00
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 35Estadio Baceñuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ribamontán al Mar24%
×Draw25%
Atlético Albericia52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ribamontán al Mar
1.03
Atlético Albericia
1.65

Atlético Albericia creates 60% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 108 away

creates per match

Ribamontán al Mar
0.63
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Ribamontán al Mar
1.73
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribamontán al Mar ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ribamontán al Mar or draw
48%
Ribamontán al Mar or Atlético Albericia
75%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
76%

Winning margin

Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
9%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
64%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
28%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
49%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
31%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ribamontán al Mar at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.63 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.03

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ribamontán al Mar scores more
24%
level
25%
Atlético Albericia scores more
52%

Atlético Albericia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ribamontán al Mar host Atlético Albericia

April 26, 2020: Ribamontán al Mar take on Atlético Albericia in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ribamontán al Mar host Atlético Albericia at Estadio Baceñuela.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.