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Ribadumia vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ribadumia
Ribadumia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Campo de Futbol de A Senra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ribadumia40%
×Draw26%
Rápido Bouzas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ribadumia
1.38
Rápido Bouzas
1.24

Ribadumia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 75 away

creates per match

Ribadumia
1.53
Rápido Bouzas
1.12

allows per match

Ribadumia
1.35
Rápido Bouzas
1.23

finishing

Ribadumia+0.00on par
Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribadumia ↓

Rápido Bouzas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ribadumia or draw
66%
Ribadumia or Rápido Bouzas
74%
Draw or Rápido Bouzas
60%

Winning margin

Ribadumia wins by 2+
19%
Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ribadumia 1+ goals
75%
Ribadumia 2+ goals
40%
Ribadumia 3+ goals
16%
Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
71%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
35%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ribadumia (draw refunded)
54%
Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ribadumia at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ribadumia attack 1.53 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Ribadumia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ribadumia scores more
40%
level
26%
Rápido Bouzas scores more
34%

Ribadumia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ribadumia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ribadumia 0 – 0 Rápido Bouzas

Ribadumia and Rápido Bouzas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol de A Senra in Ribadumia.