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Ribadumia vs Pontellas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ribadumia
Ribadumia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pontellas
Pontellas
12/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Campo de Futbol de A Senra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ribadumia56%
×Draw23%
Pontellas21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ribadumia
1.78
Pontellas
0.98

Ribadumia creates 82% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ribadumia
1.53
Pontellas
0.61

allows per match

Ribadumia
1.35
Pontellas
2.03

finishing

Ribadumia+0.00on par
Pontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribadumia ↓

Pontellas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ribadumia or draw
79%
Ribadumia or Pontellas
77%
Draw or Pontellas
44%

Winning margin

Ribadumia wins by 2+
32%
Pontellas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ribadumia 1+ goals
83%
Ribadumia 2+ goals
53%
Ribadumia 3+ goals
26%
Pontellas 1+ goals
62%
Pontellas 2+ goals
26%
Pontellas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ribadumia (draw refunded)
73%
Pontellas (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ribadumia at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Pontellas away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ribadumia attack 1.53 + Pontellas defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.78

Pontellas attack 0.61 + Ribadumia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ribadumia scores more
56%
level
23%
Pontellas scores more
21%

Ribadumia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ribadumia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ribadumia vs Pontellas

Ribadumia beat Pontellas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol de A Senra in Ribadumia.