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Ribadumia vs As Pontes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ribadumia
Ribadumia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
As Pontes
As Pontes
5/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 7Campo de Futbol de A Senra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ribadumia53%
×Draw24%
As Pontes23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ribadumia
1.69
As Pontes
1.04

Ribadumia creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ribadumia
1.53
As Pontes
0.74

allows per match

Ribadumia
1.35
As Pontes
1.84

finishing

Ribadumia+0.00on par
As Pontes+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribadumia ↓

As Pontes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ribadumia or draw
77%
Ribadumia or As Pontes
76%
Draw or As Pontes
47%

Winning margin

Ribadumia wins by 2+
28%
As Pontes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ribadumia 1+ goals
82%
Ribadumia 2+ goals
50%
Ribadumia 3+ goals
24%
As Pontes 1+ goals
65%
As Pontes 2+ goals
28%
As Pontes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ribadumia (draw refunded)
69%
As Pontes (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ribadumia at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

As Pontes away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ribadumia attack 1.53 + As Pontes defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.69

As Pontes attack 0.74 + Ribadumia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ribadumia scores more
53%
level
24%
As Pontes scores more
23%

Ribadumia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ribadumia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ribadumia vs As Pontes

Ribadumia and As Pontes drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol de A Senra in Ribadumia.