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Ribadumia vs Agrupación Estudiantil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ribadumia
Ribadumia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Agrupación Estudiantil
Agrupación Estudiantil
4/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 2Campo de Futbol de A Senra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ribadumia51%
×Draw23%
Agrupación Estudiantil26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ribadumia
1.83
Agrupación Estudiantil
1.24

Ribadumia creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ribadumia
1.53
Agrupación Estudiantil
1.12

allows per match

Ribadumia
1.35
Agrupación Estudiantil
2.12

finishing

Ribadumia+0.00on par
Agrupación Estudiantil+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribadumia ↓

Agrupación Estudiantil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ribadumia or draw
74%
Ribadumia or Agrupación Estudiantil
77%
Draw or Agrupación Estudiantil
49%

Winning margin

Ribadumia wins by 2+
28%
Agrupación Estudiantil wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ribadumia 1+ goals
84%
Ribadumia 2+ goals
54%
Ribadumia 3+ goals
28%
Agrupación Estudiantil 1+ goals
71%
Agrupación Estudiantil 2+ goals
35%
Agrupación Estudiantil 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ribadumia (draw refunded)
66%
Agrupación Estudiantil (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ribadumia at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Agrupación Estudiantil away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ribadumia attack 1.53 + Agrupación Estudiantil defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.83

Agrupación Estudiantil attack 1.12 + Ribadumia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ribadumia scores more
51%
level
23%
Agrupación Estudiantil scores more
26%

Ribadumia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ribadumia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ribadumia 2 – 0 Agrupación Estudiantil

Ribadumia beat Agrupación Estudiantil 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol de A Senra in Ribadumia.