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Riadi Salmi vs Youssoufia Berrechid — Cup 2020

Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechidadvanced
3/18/2022CupCup · Round of 16Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Riadi Salmi40%
×Draw24%
Youssoufia Berrechid36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riadi Salmi
1.54
Youssoufia Berrechid
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Riadi Salmi
1.33
Youssoufia Berrechid
1.25

allows per match

Riadi Salmi
1.67
Youssoufia Berrechid
1.75

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par
Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw
64%
Riadi Salmi or Youssoufia Berrechid
76%
Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid
60%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
19%
Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
79%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
45%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
20%
Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
77%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
43%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
52%
Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.33 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 1.25 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more
40%
level
24%
Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
36%

Riadi Salmi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Riadi Salmi 1–2 Youssoufia Berrechid

Youssoufia Berrechid beat Riadi Salmi 2-1 in Cup on March 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.