Riadi Salmi 0–0 UTS Rabat: Result & Stats

Riadi Salmi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UTS Rabat

9/28/2024

Botola Pro · Round 4Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Riadi Salmi36%

×Draw28%

UTS Rabat36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Riadi SalmiExpected goals in this matchUTS Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.21

Riadi Salmi

1.20

UTS Rabat

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 61 away

1.03

creates per match

1.07

1.34

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Riadi Salmi

1.03

UTS Rabat

1.07

allows per match

Riadi Salmi

1.34

UTS Rabat

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

UTS Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw

64%

Riadi Salmi or UTS Rabat

72%

Draw or UTS Rabat

64%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+

15%

UTS Rabat wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals

70%

Riadi Salmi 2+ goals

34%

Riadi Salmi 3+ goals

12%

UTS Rabat 1+ goals

70%

UTS Rabat 2+ goals

34%

UTS Rabat 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)

50%

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.03 + UTS Rabat defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

UTS Rabat attack 1.07 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more

36%

level

28%

UTS Rabat scores more

36%

Riadi Salmi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff