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Riadi Salmi vs Sidi Kacem — Botola 2 2025

Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
FT
2 – 0
Sidi Kacem
Sidi Kacem
10/20/2018Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 6Terrain Errazi (Berrechid)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Riadi Salmi48%
×Draw30%
Sidi Kacem22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riadi Salmi
1.23
Sidi Kacem
0.73

Riadi Salmi creates 68% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Riadi Salmi
1.12
Sidi Kacem
0.87

allows per match

Riadi Salmi
0.60
Sidi Kacem
1.33

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par
Sidi Kacem+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Sidi Kacem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw
78%
Riadi Salmi or Sidi Kacem
70%
Draw or Sidi Kacem
52%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
22%
Sidi Kacem wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
71%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
35%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
13%
Sidi Kacem 1+ goals
52%
Sidi Kacem 2+ goals
17%
Sidi Kacem 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
69%
Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.60 · 60 matches

Sidi Kacem away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.12 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sidi Kacem attack 0.87 + Riadi Salmi defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more
48%
level
30%
Sidi Kacem scores more
22%

Riadi Salmi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Riadi Salmi 2–0 Sidi Kacem

Riadi Salmi beat Sidi Kacem 2-0 in Botola 2 on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Terrain Errazi (Berrechid).