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Riadi Salmi vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Botola Pro 2025

Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
6/15/2022Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 25Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Riadi Salmi38%
×Draw29%
Rapide Oued ZEM33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riadi Salmi
1.13
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.03

Riadi Salmi creates 10% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

creates per match

Riadi Salmi
1.03
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.72

allows per match

Riadi Salmi
1.34
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.23

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw
67%
Riadi Salmi or Rapide Oued ZEM
71%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
62%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
16%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
68%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
31%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
11%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
64%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
28%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
54%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.23 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.03 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.72 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more
38%
level
29%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
33%

Riadi Salmi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Riadi Salmi vs Rapide Oued ZEM

Riadi Salmi and Rapide Oued ZEM drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on June 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.