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Riadi Salmi vs Raja Casablanca — Botola Pro 2025

Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
11/11/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 9Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Riadi Salmi27%
×Draw28%
Raja Casablanca45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riadi Salmi
0.98
Raja Casablanca
1.34

Raja Casablanca creates 37% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 121 away

creates per match

Riadi Salmi
1.03
Raja Casablanca
1.34

allows per match

Riadi Salmi
1.34
Raja Casablanca
0.94

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par
Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Raja Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw
55%
Riadi Salmi or Raja Casablanca
72%
Draw or Raja Casablanca
73%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
10%
Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
62%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
26%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
8%
Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
74%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
39%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
38%
Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.03 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Raja Casablanca attack 1.34 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more
27%
level
28%
Raja Casablanca scores more
45%

Raja Casablanca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Riadi Salmi vs Raja Casablanca

Riadi Salmi and Raja Casablanca drew 0-0 in Botola Pro on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.