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Riadi Salmi vs Olympique Safi — Botola Pro 2025

Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
3/7/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 24Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Riadi Salmi36%
×Draw28%
Olympique Safi36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riadi Salmi
1.16
Olympique Safi
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 120 away

creates per match

Riadi Salmi
1.03
Olympique Safi
0.96

allows per match

Riadi Salmi
1.34
Olympique Safi
1.29

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par
Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Olympique Safi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw
64%
Riadi Salmi or Olympique Safi
72%
Draw or Olympique Safi
64%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
15%
Olympique Safi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
69%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
32%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
11%
Olympique Safi 1+ goals
68%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
32%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
50%
Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.03 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Olympique Safi attack 0.96 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more
36%
level
28%
Olympique Safi scores more
36%

Riadi Salmi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Riadi Salmi vs Olympique Safi

Olympique Safi beat Riadi Salmi 1-0 in Botola Pro on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.