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Riadi Salmi vs Ittihad Tanger — Botola Pro 2025

Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
2/7/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 16Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Riadi Salmi38%
×Draw28%
Ittihad Tanger33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riadi Salmi
1.21
Ittihad Tanger
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 120 away

creates per match

Riadi Salmi
1.03
Ittihad Tanger
0.89

allows per match

Riadi Salmi
1.34
Ittihad Tanger
1.39

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par
Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Ittihad Tanger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw
67%
Riadi Salmi or Ittihad Tanger
72%
Draw or Ittihad Tanger
62%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
16%
Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
70%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
34%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
12%
Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
67%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
30%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
53%
Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

Ittihad Tanger away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.03 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.89 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more
38%
level
28%
Ittihad Tanger scores more
33%

Riadi Salmi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Riadi Salmi vs Ittihad Tanger

Ittihad Tanger beat Riadi Salmi 3-1 in Botola Pro on February 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.