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Riadi Salmi vs Hassania Agadir — Botola Pro 2025

Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
6/17/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 28Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Riadi Salmi36%
×Draw29%
Hassania Agadir34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riadi Salmi
1.10
Hassania Agadir
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 121 away

creates per match

Riadi Salmi
1.03
Hassania Agadir
0.79

allows per match

Riadi Salmi
1.34
Hassania Agadir
1.17

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par
Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Hassania Agadir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw
66%
Riadi Salmi or Hassania Agadir
71%
Draw or Hassania Agadir
64%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
15%
Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
67%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
30%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
10%
Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
65%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
29%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
51%
Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.17 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.03 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Hassania Agadir attack 0.79 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more
36%
level
29%
Hassania Agadir scores more
34%

Riadi Salmi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Riadi Salmi vs Hassania Agadir

Hassania Agadir beat Riadi Salmi 3-1 in Botola Pro on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.