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Riadi Salmi vs Hassania Agadir — Cup 2020

Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadiradvanced
Unknown 62'
F. Ben Choug 39'
Unknown 7'
2/10/2023CupCup · Round of 32Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Riadi Salmi28%
×Draw25%
Hassania Agadir47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riadi Salmi
1.17
Hassania Agadir
1.58

Hassania Agadir creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Riadi Salmi
1.33
Hassania Agadir
1.50

allows per match

Riadi Salmi
1.67
Hassania Agadir
1.00

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par
Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Hassania Agadir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw
53%
Riadi Salmi or Hassania Agadir
75%
Draw or Hassania Agadir
72%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
11%
Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
69%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
33%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
11%
Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
79%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
47%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
38%
Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.33 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hassania Agadir attack 1.50 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more
28%
level
25%
Hassania Agadir scores more
47%

Hassania Agadir at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
39'
F. Ben Choug
62'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Riadi Salmi 1–2 Hassania Agadir

Hassania Agadir beat Riadi Salmi 2-1 in Cup on February 10, 2023.

Goals: ? (7', 62'), F. Ben Choug (39').

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.