Riadi Salmi 1–3 FUS Rabat: Result & Stats

Riadi Salmi

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

FUS Rabat

10/8/2023

Botola Pro · Round 6Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Riadi Salmi31%

×Draw29%

FUS Rabat41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Riadi SalmiExpected goals in this matchFUS Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.22

Riadi Salmi

1.02

FUS Rabat

1.22

FUS Rabat creates 20% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 120 away

1.03

creates per match

1.09

1.34

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Riadi Salmi

1.03

FUS Rabat

1.09

allows per match

Riadi Salmi

1.34

FUS Rabat

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

FUS Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw

59%

Riadi Salmi or FUS Rabat

71%

Draw or FUS Rabat

69%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+

12%

FUS Rabat wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals

64%

Riadi Salmi 2+ goals

27%

Riadi Salmi 3+ goals

8%

FUS Rabat 1+ goals

70%

FUS Rabat 2+ goals

34%

FUS Rabat 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)

43%

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.03 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more

31%

level

29%

FUS Rabat scores more

41%

FUS Rabat at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff