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Petro de Luanda vs Sagrada Esperança — Girabola 2025

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
2 – 1
Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
4/8/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 6Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Petro de Luanda64%
×Draw22%
Sagrada Esperança14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
1.82
Sagrada Esperança
0.70

Petro de Luanda creates 160% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 24 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
1.97
Sagrada Esperança
0.92

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.47
Sagrada Esperança
1.67

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Sagrada Esperança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
86%
Petro de Luanda or Sagrada Esperança
78%
Draw or Sagrada Esperança
36%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
38%
Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
84%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
54%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
27%
Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
50%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
16%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
82%
Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.47 · 32 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 1.97 + Sagrada Esperança defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.82

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.92 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
64%
level
22%
Sagrada Esperança scores more
14%

Petro de Luanda at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petro de Luanda vs Sagrada Esperança

Petro de Luanda beat Sagrada Esperança 2-1 in Girabola on April 8, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro.