Ri 3 Corrales 4–0 Sportivo Iteno: Result & Stats

Ri 3 Corrales

FT

4 – 0

Sportivo Iteno

5/4/2019

Division Intermedia · Round 2Estadio Tres Corrales (Tres Corrales)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ri 3 Corrales50%

×Draw25%

Sportivo Iteno25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ri 3 CorralesExpected goals in this matchSportivo Iteno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.05

Ri 3 Corrales

1.60

Sportivo Iteno

1.05

Ri 3 Corrales creates 52% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 62 away

1.37

creates per match

1.00

1.10

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Ri 3 Corrales

1.37

Sportivo Iteno

1.00

allows per match

Ri 3 Corrales

1.10

Sportivo Iteno

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ri 3 Corrales+0.00on par

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ri 3 Corrales ↓

Sportivo Iteno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ri 3 Corrales or draw

75%

Ri 3 Corrales or Sportivo Iteno

75%

Draw or Sportivo Iteno

50%

Winning margin

Ri 3 Corrales wins by 2+

26%

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ri 3 Corrales 1+ goals

80%

Ri 3 Corrales 2+ goals

47%

Ri 3 Corrales 3+ goals

22%

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals

65%

Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals

28%

Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ri 3 Corrales (draw refunded)

67%

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ri 3 Corrales at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ri 3 Corrales attack 1.37 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sportivo Iteno attack 1.00 + Ri 3 Corrales defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ri 3 Corrales scores more

50%

level

25%

Sportivo Iteno scores more

25%

Ri 3 Corrales at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ri 3 Corrales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Ri 3 Corrales 4–0 Sportivo Iteno

Ri 3 Corrales beat Sportivo Iteno 4-0 in Division Intermedia on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Tres Corrales (Tres Corrales).

Ri 3 Corrales vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Division Intermedia: Ri 3 Corrales 4–0 Sportivo Iteno