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Ri 3 Corrales vs Resistencia — Division Intermedia 2018

Ri 3 Corrales
Ri 3 Corrales
FT
0 – 0
Resistencia
Resistencia
8/11/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 16Cancha de Corrales (Ciudad del Este)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ri 3 Corrales41%
×Draw27%
Resistencia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ri 3 Corrales
1.31
Resistencia
1.13

Ri 3 Corrales creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ri 3 Corrales
1.37
Resistencia
1.16

allows per match

Ri 3 Corrales
1.10
Resistencia
1.25

finishing

Ri 3 Corrales+0.00on par
Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ri 3 Corrales ↓

Resistencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ri 3 Corrales or draw
68%
Ri 3 Corrales or Resistencia
73%
Draw or Resistencia
59%

Winning margin

Ri 3 Corrales wins by 2+
18%
Resistencia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ri 3 Corrales 1+ goals
73%
Ri 3 Corrales 2+ goals
38%
Ri 3 Corrales 3+ goals
14%
Resistencia 1+ goals
68%
Resistencia 2+ goals
31%
Resistencia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ri 3 Corrales (draw refunded)
56%
Resistencia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ri 3 Corrales at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Resistencia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ri 3 Corrales attack 1.37 + Resistencia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Resistencia attack 1.16 + Ri 3 Corrales defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ri 3 Corrales scores more
41%
level
27%
Resistencia scores more
32%

Ri 3 Corrales at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ri 3 Corrales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ri 3 Corrales vs Resistencia

Ri 3 Corrales and Resistencia drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on August 11, 2019.

The match was played at Cancha de Corrales (Ciudad del Este).