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Ri 3 Corrales vs Martin Ledesma — Division Intermedia 2018

Ri 3 Corrales
Ri 3 Corrales
FT
0 – 0
Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
7/15/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 19Estadio Tres Corrales (Tres Corrales)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ri 3 Corrales45%
×Draw28%
Martin Ledesma27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ri 3 Corrales
1.35
Martin Ledesma
0.99

Ri 3 Corrales creates 36% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 61 away

creates per match

Ri 3 Corrales
1.37
Martin Ledesma
0.87

allows per match

Ri 3 Corrales
1.10
Martin Ledesma
1.34

finishing

Ri 3 Corrales+0.00on par
Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ri 3 Corrales ↓

Martin Ledesma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ri 3 Corrales or draw
73%
Ri 3 Corrales or Martin Ledesma
72%
Draw or Martin Ledesma
55%

Winning margin

Ri 3 Corrales wins by 2+
21%
Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ri 3 Corrales 1+ goals
74%
Ri 3 Corrales 2+ goals
39%
Ri 3 Corrales 3+ goals
15%
Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
63%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
26%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ri 3 Corrales (draw refunded)
62%
Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ri 3 Corrales at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ri 3 Corrales attack 1.37 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Ri 3 Corrales defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ri 3 Corrales scores more
45%
level
28%
Martin Ledesma scores more
27%

Ri 3 Corrales at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ri 3 Corrales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ri 3 Corrales vs Martin Ledesma

Ri 3 Corrales and Martin Ledesma drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on July 15, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Tres Corrales (Tres Corrales).