Ri 3 Corrales 2–3 General Caballero: Result & Stats

Ri 3 Corrales

FT

2 – 3

General Caballero

7/21/2019

Division Intermedia · Round 13Cancha de Corrales (Ciudad del Este)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ri 3 Corrales42%

×Draw26%

General Caballero32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ri 3 CorralesExpected goals in this matchGeneral Caballero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.18

Ri 3 Corrales

1.40

General Caballero

1.18

Ri 3 Corrales creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 53 away

1.37

creates per match

1.25

1.10

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ri 3 Corrales

1.37

General Caballero

1.25

allows per match

Ri 3 Corrales

1.10

General Caballero

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ri 3 Corrales+0.00on par

General Caballero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ri 3 Corrales ↓

General Caballero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ri 3 Corrales or draw

68%

Ri 3 Corrales or General Caballero

74%

Draw or General Caballero

58%

Winning margin

Ri 3 Corrales wins by 2+

20%

General Caballero wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ri 3 Corrales 1+ goals

75%

Ri 3 Corrales 2+ goals

41%

Ri 3 Corrales 3+ goals

17%

General Caballero 1+ goals

69%

General Caballero 2+ goals

33%

General Caballero 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ri 3 Corrales (draw refunded)

57%

General Caballero (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ri 3 Corrales at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

General Caballero away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ri 3 Corrales attack 1.37 + General Caballero defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

General Caballero attack 1.25 + Ri 3 Corrales defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ri 3 Corrales scores more

42%

level

26%

General Caballero scores more

32%

Ri 3 Corrales at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ri 3 Corrales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff