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Ri 3 Corrales vs Deportivo Caaguazu — Division Intermedia 2018

Ri 3 Corrales
Ri 3 Corrales
FT
5 – 1
Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
9/15/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 29Estadio Tres Corrales (Tres Corrales)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ri 3 Corrales54%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Caaguazu21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ri 3 Corrales
1.65
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.92

Ri 3 Corrales creates 79% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ri 3 Corrales
1.37
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.73

allows per match

Ri 3 Corrales
1.10
Deportivo Caaguazu
1.93

finishing

Ri 3 Corrales+0.00on par
Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ri 3 Corrales ↓

Deportivo Caaguazu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ri 3 Corrales or draw
79%
Ri 3 Corrales or Deportivo Caaguazu
75%
Draw or Deportivo Caaguazu
46%

Winning margin

Ri 3 Corrales wins by 2+
29%
Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ri 3 Corrales 1+ goals
81%
Ri 3 Corrales 2+ goals
49%
Ri 3 Corrales 3+ goals
23%
Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
60%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ri 3 Corrales (draw refunded)
72%
Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ri 3 Corrales at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Deportivo Caaguazu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ri 3 Corrales attack 1.37 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 0.73 + Ri 3 Corrales defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ri 3 Corrales scores more
54%
level
25%
Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
21%

Ri 3 Corrales at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ri 3 Corrales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ri 3 Corrales vs Deportivo Caaguazu

Ri 3 Corrales beat Deportivo Caaguazu 5-1 in Division Intermedia on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Tres Corrales (Tres Corrales).