Ri 3 Corrales 1–1 Club River Plate: Result & Stats

Ri 3 Corrales

FT

1 – 1

Club River Plate

5/6/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 9Estadio Tres Corrales (Tres Corrales)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ri 3 Corrales42%

×Draw28%

Club River Plate30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ri 3 CorralesExpected goals in this matchClub River Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.06

Ri 3 Corrales

1.30

Club River Plate

1.06

Ri 3 Corrales creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

1.37

creates per match

1.02

1.10

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Ri 3 Corrales

1.37

Club River Plate

1.02

allows per match

Ri 3 Corrales

1.10

Club River Plate

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ri 3 Corrales+0.00on par

Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ri 3 Corrales ↓

Club River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ri 3 Corrales or draw

70%

Ri 3 Corrales or Club River Plate

72%

Draw or Club River Plate

58%

Winning margin

Ri 3 Corrales wins by 2+

19%

Club River Plate wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ri 3 Corrales 1+ goals

73%

Ri 3 Corrales 2+ goals

37%

Ri 3 Corrales 3+ goals

14%

Club River Plate 1+ goals

65%

Club River Plate 2+ goals

29%

Club River Plate 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ri 3 Corrales (draw refunded)

58%

Club River Plate (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ri 3 Corrales at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ri 3 Corrales attack 1.37 + Club River Plate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Club River Plate attack 1.02 + Ri 3 Corrales defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ri 3 Corrales scores more

42%

level

28%

Club River Plate scores more

30%

Ri 3 Corrales at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ri 3 Corrales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff